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China's GDP may fall below 6pc in 2020: UBS Wealth Management

〖2019-12-6〗

CHINA's economic growth could drop below six per cent next year for the first time since 1990, says UBS Wealth Management, reported Caixin.


Real GDP is set to increase by just 5.7 per cent in 2020, according to Hu Yifan, regional chief investment officer and chief China economist at UBS Wealth Management.


China's GDP growth slipped to 6.6 per cent in 2018 from 6.8 per cent the previous year, and was 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said in October.Mr Hu isn't the only analyst forecasting sub-six per cent GDP growth in 2020. Nomura Holdings, Goldman Sachs Group. and Moody's Investors' Service estimate expansion of 5.8 per cent.


Morgan Stanley was a little more optimistic, with a base case scenario of six per cent, although its economists say growth could slip to 5.9 per cent if the trade war worsens and the property market slumps, and could fall as low as 5.3 per cent in a worst-case scenario where trade talks with the US break down and more tariffs are imposed by Washington on Chinese goods.

 
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